Both Russia and Ukraine expanding military operations at sea have intensified concerns about a decrease in grain supplies to world markets and have begun to affect prices.
Medianews.az reports that Ukraine's attacks on tankers and cargo ships in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, and Russia's shelling of ports and ships in the Odessa region have led to a 5% rise in wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the world's largest agricultural exchange.
Futures are derivative financial contracts in which parties agree to buy and sell a certain asset (commodity, currency, or stock) at a predetermined price in the future.
Since July 6 when Ukraine began drone attacks against tankers and cargo ships in the Sea of Azov, wheat prices on the Chicago exchange have increased by approximately 13%.
According to "Bloomberg" agency, on July 16 wheat futures traded near $6.76 per bushel—the highest price in two months—equivalent to $248.4 per ton.
1 bushel of wheat is approximately 27.2 kilograms of wheat.
Although the current situation recalls the period at the beginning of the war when Russia's blockade of the Black Sea paralyzed Ukraine’s grain exports, analysts believe the market's reaction will be more restrained this time.
In their opinion, the main reason is that the crisis is occurring at different times of the year. In 2022, tensions emerged around the time of spring planting and when crops were growing in the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, the market factored in risks of both production decline and export disruption in prices. In 2026, however, the primary concern arises from exports rather than production.
According to the Ukrainian Agricultural Council, due to Russian missile strikes, Ukraine's grain export capacity has dropped from 6 million tons to 4 million tons per month. Russia has completely stopped grain transportation from the Sea of Azov. Analysts estimate that this could result in a 20-25% loss in the country’s grain exports.
Ukraine has attacked 116 ships in the Sea of Azov over the past nine days.