It is not known when the peace and establishment of interstate relations agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia will be signed. The foreign ministers of the two countries initialed the draft agreement on August 8, 2025, in Washington. Azerbaijan places the condition for signing on the amendment of the Armenian Constitution.
Some experts suggest signing the peace agreement before the Armenian Constitution is amended, and postponing its ratification in parliament until later.
Can the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia be signed before the constitutional amendment in Armenia?
Regarding the topic, Medianews.az spoke with security expert Ilham Ismayil, who said:
"After the initialing of the peace agreement in Washington on August 8 last year, expectations were that the document could be signed soon, i.e., before parliamentary elections are held in Armenia and before a constitutional referendum is organized. Personally, I would also like that to happen. Because before the constitutional referendum, parliamentary elections must take place in Armenia. There is a strong likelihood that these elections will be under pressure and influence from Russia. All opposition forces oriented towards Russia are against the Pashinyan government. At the same time, revanchist forces and Dashnaks are uniting. Presumably, they are trying to remove Nikol Pashinyan from power by provoking incidents in parliamentary elections or through other means. The removal of Pashinyan from power could hinder the planned constitutional changes in Armenia in the future. Of course, this is just a possibility. The chance that the revanchists’ attempt to take power would result in a coup also remains. Nikol Pashinyan currently appears more influential and stronger than his rivals. But it should be noted that tensions in relations with Russia could considerably increase pressure on Armenia."
According to I. Ismayil, if the peace agreement is signed before the elections in Armenia, neither external nor internal forces will be able to seriously influence the process: "Most importantly, it would be possible to open borders between Turkey and Armenia. Even though Armenia’s economic dependence on Russia would not be completely eliminated after the borders open, it could be minimized. Because the main route linking Armenia to Russia is the Lars pass. Russia can close that route at any time, increasing dissatisfaction among domestic forces."
In any case, Azerbaijan's competent authorities have broader information and will measure and evaluate how the process will be managed. If the country's leadership believes that the peace agreement must absolutely be signed after the constitutional amendment in Armenia, then more reliable information and a more realistic perspective have been taken as a basis. The main thing is that, in any case, Azerbaijan’s interests should be given priority over everything else."
Nailə Qasımova,
Medianews.az