The main threat China faces today does not come from outside, nor from the Trump administration's policy of "decoupling" the world's two largest economies. The threat comes from within: the population in the country is declining at an unprecedented scale and speed.
Musavat.com reports that this is reflected in a study prepared by The Washington Post. The newspaper writes that this will have long-term consequences felt over decades not only in China but throughout the world.
The slowing of economic growth could jeopardize Beijing’s ambitions to become a global superpower comparable to the United States, while also causing serious labor shortages that could disrupt supply chains for goods ranging from Barbie dolls and shoes to mobile phones and electric vehicles.
Louisa Lu, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics, says, "Demographic decline is almost impossible to reverse." She estimates that China’s shrinking workforce could reduce annual GDP growth by about 0.5 percent over the next decade.
In 1990, the average age of Chinese people was 23.7 years, and on average a woman gave birth to 2.51 children, which is higher than the 2.1 level needed to maintain population stability. However, by 2023, the demographic picture had changed drastically: the average age rose to 39.1, and the birth rate dropped to one child per woman. According to the 2022 census, China’s population reached 1.4 billion and is now declining. The UN forecasts that by 2050 China's population will fall to 1.26 billion and its age structure will worsen: about 10 percent of residents will be under 15 years old, and about 40 percent over 60. By 2100, the population could drop by more than half to 633 million, of whom only 7.8 percent will be under 15 and more than half – 52 percent – will be over 60.
One-Child Policy
The media report that the root of China's current problems lies in birth control policies that began in the 1970s. At that time, the government encouraged people to marry late, maintain a large age gap between children, and have fewer children under the slogan "later, longer, fewer." In 1979, authorities officially implemented the "one-child" rule. The practice often involved forced sterilizations, abortions, and fines for "excessive" births.
The measures were reported to be very effective. In 2015, the birth rate dropped sharply, and restrictions were eased: in 2016 two children were allowed, and in 2021, three. However, the birth rate never recovered, and after a brief increase in 2024, it continued to decline—from 1.77 children per woman in 2016 to 1.12 in 2021.
The cost of raising children in China is a significant reason for this decline. According to the YuWa Population Research Institute in Beijing, the average cost of raising one child until university graduation is approximately $74,963, reaching $140,747 in megacities like Shanghai.
The government tried to stimulate birth rates with cash payments but met limited success: in 2025, Beijing offered subsidies of about $500 annually per child for the first three years of life. Many responded sarcastically on social media: "If they paid ten times more, I’d consider it."
The decline in marriage rates also directly affects birth rates. In 2024, only 6.1 million marriages were registered in China—less than half of the 13.5 million in 2013. The Generation Z youth increasingly see no meaning in marriage and parenthood.
Nevertheless, the government actively promotes marriage: universities provide "love courses," companies offer bonuses to married workers, and local governments pay bonuses for marriage registration. Journalists note that state media even criticize TV shows that portray divorce as freedom.
Alongside the falling birth rate, life expectancy is rising. The number of elderly Chinese is increasing rapidly and predicted to double within 30 years. This creates a heavy burden on pension systems funded by taxes. By 2100, there will be more non-working people than working people in China.
Decline in the Workforce
For decades, China was the "world's factory," but that era is coming to an end. The reduction in the workforce makes it impossible to maintain previous production levels.
Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin, says, "Currently, China accounts for about 30 percent of global manufacturing power, but this will inevitably decline—there simply aren’t enough workers in the country."
The problem deepens with the attitude of the youth: those born between 1960 and 1980 were happy to work in factories, but today’s young Chinese do not want such a life.
Immigration could be a solution, but according to media reports, Chinese authorities, who value cultural homogeneity, are not in a hurry to "open the country." Instead, they rely on automation and robots, though this has little effect on the service sector.