Russia has put forward a new strategy regarding the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
The next summit of the CIS heads of state will be held in Tajikistan. Russia has prepared documents to develop political-economic and military cooperation relations among CIS countries in a new format. At the end of the summit, a number of documents will be adopted.
It should be noted that the CIS is an amorphous entity. Russia does not conduct policies based on mutual trust with member countries. Russia has included clauses such as political-economic, military-security, and protection of borders against external threats in the documents to be adopted.
Russia has adopted a new strategy concerning the CIS. Russia's policy will not be effective. Because with these documents, Russia emphasizes its role as a moderator and entails a policy directly coordinated with Moscow. Member countries have their own foreign policy agenda. Unlike Tajikistan, member countries maintain a distance in their policies from Russia.
Especially Russia’s tightening of laws against migrants from CIS countries, territorial claims on Kazakhstan, steps like punishing Uzbekistan have lowered trust in Moscow to a low level.
Russia is suffering significant strategic defeats in Ukraine. It pursues an occupation policy violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine, which is a CIS member. It shot down an Azerbaijani civilian plane. By supporting the opposition before elections in Armenia, it attempts a coup d'état. Under these circumstances, Russia’s policy to revive the CIS will not be possible.
Currently, Russia is moving towards an isolationist policy with its neighbors through the domestic laws it adopts. It does not accept migrants from Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Relations with the countries of both regions are not smooth.
At the same time, it is conducting a geopolitical hybrid war with the West. Armenia pursues a pro-Western policy. A new geopolitical order is being established in the South Caucasus. The Organization of Turkic States is implementing new military and economic projects in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. The USA will control the Zangezur corridor. Therefore, the opportunities to unite the CIS countries around itself and create a new geopolitical power are limited.
Mahammad Asadullazade,
political commentator
