An article titled "Vladimir Putin is losing control over Russia" has been published in the British magazine "The Economist." The magazine states that the author of the article is a former high-ranking official who once worked in the Russian government. However, the magazine has kept the author's name confidential.
According to Medianews.az, the article says that as Vladimir Putin tries to maintain power, the systemic crisis in Russia deepens and the country enters an uncertain stage regarding its future.
The article notes that the rhetoric of the Russian elite has changed. Whereas officials and business representatives previously described the Ukraine war as "our war," they now talk about what is happening as "his project," "his decisions." According to the author, the future is no longer discussed as a process dependent on Putin’s decisions but as a reality formed beyond him.
The article emphasizes that this situation is related to four main factors.
The first factor is the increasingly severe economic and social consequences of the war in Ukraine. As the war drags on, inflation and taxes increase, censorship strengthens, and infrastructure weakens. The author writes that the entire country pays the costs of the war, but society sees no purpose in return.
The second factor is the elites’ need for new rules and institutions. The article states that previously, Russian oligarchs and major business owners resolved their disputes through Western courts and international arbitration. However, amid the return of capital to Russia, all conflicts must now be resolved within the country. It is highlighted that in the last three years, assets worth about 5 trillion rubles have been confiscated, nationalized, or transferred to people close to the authorities. According to the author, even forces loyal to the regime have started demanding stable rules and functioning institutions.
The third factor is the change in the geopolitical environment. The article notes that although Russia presents itself as a power changing the world order, in reality, it has only affected the acceleration of global crises. The author writes that Moscow previously leveraged advantages such as Europe’s energy dependence, its status in the UN Security Council, and its nuclear power. Now Europe has turned to alternative energy sources, Russia’s international standing has weakened, and nuclear threats have damaged Moscow’s position.
The article identifies the fourth factor as the strengthening of ideological control. The author points out that previously, the authorities gained political loyalty in exchange for not interfering in citizens’ private lives. Now, the main tools of the state are repression, censorship, and control. Internet restrictions, in particular, have become a symbol of this. The article states that while the authorities demand loyalty from people, they cannot explain what kind of future awaits them.
At the end of the article, it is emphasized that every step Putin takes to maintain power further destabilizes the system. According to the author, strengthening repression or new wars will not change the situation; on the contrary, it will move the crisis to a more dangerous and bloody stage.