The two-week ceasefire agreement reached between the US and Iran, will the negotiations starting on April 10 in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, between Washington and Tehran bring peace to the Middle East? Could the war start again after two weeks?
In a statement to Medianews.az regarding the issue, political analyst Oktay Qasımov said that after Donald Trump's last harsh ultimatum, Pakistan's mediation efforts increased further: "With the call of Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif at night, the parties agreed on a two-week ceasefire regime. Currently, both sides have proposals on the table: Iran’s with 10 points, the US’s with 15 points. There are many points that the parties will not accept here. However, it can be said that there are also points they will accept. When we pay attention to both sides’ statements, we see different approaches. What is important is that there will be a ceasefire for two weeks and the parties will try to make maximum use of it. Undoubtedly, Israel will also be forced to accept America’s demands."
According to the political analyst, some agreement can be reached with certain compromises: "But I repeat again that there are conditions that the parties cannot accept. Especially the issues put forward by Iran, such as the US paying compensation and withdrawing its military bases from the region. Acceptance of these seems impossible. In any case, we hope the negotiation process will lead to certain results. True, this probability is not very high. I also think that during these two weeks, the parties could be preparing for the next war by regrouping and gathering their forces. When we look at the statements of Trump and Iranian officials, we also see these notes. Donald Trump states that Iran agrees to the ceasefire, a new era can begin, and he adds, “but we will be there.” The US being there means it will not withdraw its military contingent from the region. As they say, it will still be waiting on the trigger. We see a roughly similar position from Iran as well.
Among the issues on which the parties can compromise are the opening of the Hormuz Strait and maintaining the ceasefire. Agreements may also emerge regarding softening sanctions and the degree to which Iran will enrich uranium. In any case, the probability that the war will continue after two weeks is also quite high."
Naile Qasımova,
Medianews.az