Political researcher Aqşin Kərimov shared his thoughts about the latest events on the battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine war and their possible consequences with the Medianews.az website.
Aqşin Kərimov stated: “The U.S. War Studies Institute reports based on geolocation images that Russia has advanced toward the center of Pokrovsk and in the southeast of the city. Russian forces are carrying out high-intensity attacks around Pokrovsk and its surroundings to capture the city and to collapse the ‘Ukrainian pocket.’ This is accompanied by large losses for Russian troops. Russia’s territorial gain in Pokrovsk brings its forces closer to fully capturing the entire Donetsk region.
Pokrovsk is the ‘fortress belt’ in the east connected to other cities that serve as supply gaps for Ukrainian troops and form the basis of Ukraine's defense in the east.
Russia might manage to capture Pokrovsk despite heavy losses. The recognition by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of the difficulties in establishing defense mechanisms in the face of the pace of Russian troop advances also supports this forecast.”
According to Aqşin Kərimov, implementing a strong counteroffensive campaign by Ukraine on its own territory is complex and difficult: “At least because Ukrainian troops face shortages of manpower, which hinders the staffing of personnel for offensive operations. Nevertheless, Ukraine is considering Russia’s security gaps and weaknesses within the intelligence agencies at the decision-making level to create a counterbalance in the course of the war.
In this regard, while Russia focuses on achievements in Ukrainian territories, Kyiv prioritizes a mission to confront Moscow internally with war conditions.
Presumably, Ukraine is developing a new attack model within Russia based on operational plans from British and U.S. intelligence agencies. On this basis, Ukraine is seeking ‘closest allies’ and useful tools within Russian borders. Ukraine may aim to leverage the rivalry between Russian security and intelligence services to culminate in the activation of forces against Vladimir Putin. The goal is to prepare processes that will elevate intelligence and security agencies to a political status level opposing Putin’s decisions.”
Aqşin Kərimov emphasized that for Ukraine to launch an aggressive move in this process, support from the West through intelligence along with military equipment and weapons is necessary: “Because it is difficult for Ukraine to start an anti-Putin process without delivering effective strikes deep into Russia’s rear fronts. Therefore, questions arise about how productive Ukraine’s plan to deter Russia from war objectives and to fragment its state apparatus to the desired extent will be.
Russia structures its territorial gains as important details that will trigger potential agreements between Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump.
The bilateral relations between the U.S. and Russia, shifting from threat rhetoric to cooperation priorities, hold a significant place on the agendas of both states. Putin and Trump are devising a model seeking a strategic area for compromise in Ukrainian territories while avoiding next steps that would increase tension for both countries.
This setup is not yet successful. Moreover, the main dynamics between the White House and the Kremlin concerning Ukraine have always been based on a centralized strategy. Therefore, even the most important bilateral relations between the U.S. and Russia do not eliminate the risk of sensitivity to periods of conflict escalation and the resulting instability.”
Nailə Qasımova,
Medianews.az
