The revision downward by 0.3 percentage points of the global economic growth forecast and the reduction by 2.6 percentage points of the economic growth forecast for oil-exporting countries in the "World Economic Outlook" report published by the International Monetary Fund in April 2026 once again confirms the increasing uncertainties and risk factors in the world economy. Amid current global challenges, the sharp price volatility observed in energy markets and geoeconomic tensions have not passed without affecting the international economic environment.
In the context of strengthening global economic uncertainties and fluctuations in energy markets, although a slight decrease of 0.3 percent in GDP was recorded in the Azerbaijani economy in the first quarter of 2026, this dynamic occurred mainly due to price volatility in global energy markets and, especially, a 3.4 percent reduction in oil production . Against the backdrop of the current macroeconomic environment, in the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of GDP in the non-oil and gas sector continued, and economic activity was observed to be mainly formed by expanding domestic demand, stability of investment flows, dynamic development of the service sector, and high growth rates in industry. In the relevant period, a 7.0 percent increase in the non-oil and gas industry, 9.2 percent growth in the information and communication sector, and 3.7 percent growth in trade were recorded. During the first quarter of 2026, per capita income increased by 6.6%. During this period, the value of goods sold and services rendered in the general consumer market increased by 4.6%. Specifically, retail trade turnover rose by 3.7%, public catering by 5.2%, and paid services by 8.8%.
In the construction sector, a 19.8 percent decrease in added value was recorded, mainly due to the planned phased implementation of state investments in the first quarter of each year, the seasonal nature of construction and installation works, and increased activity in large infrastructure projects during subsequent periods. In this context, the State Investment Program, restoration and reconstruction works in the territories liberated from occupation, and the successful implementation of the Great Return Program will significantly contribute to increasing activity in the construction sector, accelerating investment flows, and restoring added value in the next quarters of 2026.
Moreover, the temporary weakening observed in sectors such as transport and tourism is mostly associated with global changes in foreign policy, geopolitical factors, and difficulties arising in international logistics. Nevertheless, the reactivation of large infrastructure projects and increased state investments in the near future will serve as key factors for revitalization in these sectors.
As a result of purposeful economic policy implementation, investments directed at fixed capital increased by 14.9%, while in the oil and gas sector this growth was more dynamic, reaching 44.6%. At the same time, a 17.3% increase in investments in the non-oil and gas sector’s non-state segment reflects the expansion of economic activity in the private sector.
Additionally, in the first quarter of 2026, non-oil and gas sector exports increased by 11.7%, with this growth rate exceeding the growth rate of imports (1.2%) by up to 10 times, excluding the gold imports of the ARDNF.
During this period, exports of food products rose by 25.1% to 281 million US dollars . Compared with the same period last year, exported sugar increased 4.5 times, cotton yarn doubled, plant and animal oils and fats increased by 68.4%, cotton fiber by 43.5%, fruits and vegetables by 22.1%, aluminum and products made from it by 20.4%, tea by 15.1%, and alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages by 4.3%. Also, exports of agricultural products increased by 26.6% to 215.6 million US dollars, and exports of agro-industrial products grew by 27.4% to 88 million US dollars. In total, combined exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products increased by 26.8% to 303.7 million US dollars.
These growth dynamics demonstrate that the reforms carried out to diversify the national economy and the measures taken to develop the non-oil sector are yielding tangible results, reflecting the economy’s resilience to external shocks and its ability for sustainable development based on internal resources.
It should be noted that at the Economic Council meeting held on April 10, important issues related to the expansion of entrepreneurial activity and further improvement of the business environment were thoroughly discussed. On the agenda of the meeting, special attention was paid to existing problems in the fields of "Connecting to Construction and Communal Infrastructure" and "Industry", prepared by the "Working Group on the Removal of Obstacles and Difficulties to Entrepreneurial Activity and Business Environment Improvement Reforms".
Additionally, the "Commission on Business Environment and International Rankings" conducts surveys among entrepreneurs covering import-export operations, financial services, taxation, and tourism aimed at supporting the development of the entrepreneurial environment in the country, increasing competitiveness and expanding economic activity. This serves as a clear example of the state’s systematic and agile economic governance approach. The institutional reforms implemented in this direction not only serve to align the country’s business environment with international standards but also enhance transparency and expand private sector participation in decision-making processes. In this regard, it should be noted that within the framework of the World Bank’s "Business Ready-2025" (B-Ready, "Business Entry") report, Azerbaijan was assessed for the first time based on indicators of normative-legal framework, public services, and operational efficiency. At the same time, the raising of economic growth forecasts for Azerbaijan for 2026 by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to 2.0 percent and 2.2 percent respectively, is an important indicator confirming at the international level the sustainability of the macroeconomic policy implemented and the effectiveness of structural reforms in the country.
All these measures collectively create favorable conditions for stimulating entrepreneurial activity, further improving the business environment, and strengthening public-private sector partnership. Moreover, the "Social-Economic Development Strategy of the Azerbaijan Republic for 2027-2030" is being prepared, and the targets set within this framework will serve to ensure a qualitatively new stage of economic growth.