I sincerely say, these days I wanted to send a message to Iran-loving friends, congratulating them on Tehran's victory over Washington and Tel Aviv, but I stopped myself, I gave it up. I thought that maybe they would take offense, thinking I am mocking them.
It is a sensitive and controversial issue. Because on the other side, Trump and his team also say that they have won, that they have made Iran surrender. One war — two winners. Such things usually happen in football. Two giant teams face each other, the game ends in a draw, and both sides consider themselves winners because no one lost.
Currently, a victory parade is being held in Tehran, but Washington modestly acknowledges its victory and does not boast. A former Pentagon journalist (“A great position assigned to a journalist” is a title that suits only him) Pete Hegseth occasionally says that the war is not over yet, it is just a ceasefire.
Celebrating a ceasefire as a victory is a familiar scene. On May 12, 1994, when the speakers of the Azerbaijani and Armenian parliaments signed a ceasefire agreement in Bishkek, we were disappointed, but the Armenians had fireworks, popped champagne, held victory parades, and began composing heroism epics about the “brave soldiers.”
For exactly 26 years, we couldn’t convince them that, I swear, the war was not over, it would continue. They said, no, we quarreled, we beat you, the matter is finished.
You all know how that conversation ended. We fought again, you know who suffered the most. Now some people in Yerevan water the ground saying “we will fight again” and confirm the wisdom of an old saying (“The fallen tiger never tires of laughing”), but they should be smart. War is a bad thing. Let there always be peace. Personally, since September 2023, I have been a staunch “newbie.”
However, there are subtle points in the US-Iran war that we should note.
Even though it is far from modesty, like the size of Alaska, I will say again, as someone who wrote ten years ago that Trump is a rogue and a madman, that he cannot be trusted. Iran should appreciate the victory it has achieved and not anger the “golden-haired” (just because of his hair color). He is quick to get worked up anyway, and before you know it, he may send the B-2 bombers back.
Therefore, Iran should not exaggerate this victory talk, to use the Turkic expression.
There is a neutral broker person who equally does not favor the US or Iran, who has been attentively observing the victory cries of Iran supporters for several days and says: “The victory Iran won, you know what it resembles? It’s like two neighbors, one is big and tall, the other is short; their words clash. The big one threatens, ‘Don’t bring me there, I will jump the fence, I’ll pull your pants down.’ The short one does not keep quiet, says, ‘I am not a man if I don’t jump.’ The big one jumps over the fence, beats him up, thrashes him in front of his wife and children, kicks up dust, and then goes back after he’s done with the body. The short one stands up, cleans himself off and says, ‘Go away, thief, you couldn’t pull down my pants.’ Well, what some say now resembles that. They say that Trump didn’t achieve his goal.”
Well, everyone’s understanding of victory is different. Even experienced political analysts call such victories “Pyrrhic victories.” We can call it a “Lion’s victory” and dispose of it.
But comrades who approach the conflict with cold logic and from a global perspective say that there is no winner in this war; everyone has lost — Iran, the US, Israel, the Gulf countries, European states, and except for Russia, everyone.
Indeed, if we sum up the costs of those actively conducting the war, it runs into several trillion, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the rise in oil prices have harmed all countries. True, our oil has become more expensive, and we earned 3-5 billion more, but as a trade-off, the businesses and enterprises of ours have stopped working. Because their goods used to arrive through Hormuz to Dubai, and then were brought to our country. Now it is impossible.
They too greatly wish: “Let the day come when the quarrel ends, the clouds disperse, and the sky clears.”
I have not yet spoken about how much damage the bombardments have caused to ecology and nature. Our people liken the constant rains to monsoon rains and attribute the cause to bombs, saying the bomb rains changed the climate. How accurate this thought is can be said by Japanese and Swedish scientists. When they say it, no one doubts.
From this perspective, I cannot congratulate the brokers on the victory. Because when congratulating one with victory, you should also say words of praise, for example, “may your victories continue,” “may you have many such successes,” “I wish you bigger victories,” and so on. I fear that these would sound like a curse at this time.
According to what Trump says, pro-America friends can also be congratulated on the victory, but they are a bit disappointed, saying that when the Pentagon was busy, it should have ensured that soldiers and mullahs switch to civilian clothes. Although they are confident that “the main game is ahead, Iran will either give up uranium, or it knows well what will happen.”
See, this is the scary part. On the night of the ceasefire, millions of people could not sleep from fear that a big bomb would be dropped on Tehran at any moment. Let those days go away and never return.
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The world is old; the commanders who ruin armies are new.
Samir SARI