This month, the Ministry of Finance announced the "Medium-Term Budget Framework" covering the years 2027-2030.
The "Medium-Term Budget Framework" was prepared based on the "Rules for the Preparation of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework" approved by the decree of the President of the country dated August 24, 2018, and the Cabinet of Ministers' order dated January 30, 2026, "On the preparation of the draft state budget for 2027".
According to the document, the average annual inflation in Azerbaijan is forecasted to gradually decrease until 2030.
It is noted that according to the base scenario by the Ministry of Economy, the average annual inflation forecasted at 5.5% for this year is expected to gradually decrease to 4.6% by 2030.
How credible is the forecast that inflation in the country will decrease over the next nearly four years?
Regarding the topic, Medianews.az spoke with economist Natiq Jafarli, who stated that it is difficult to forecast inflation in Azerbaijan: "Because Azerbaijan is an excessively import-dependent country. The government can announce any budget forecast. As they say, they can express their wishes and desires. But we are very dependent on imports. Currently, the world conjuncture is changing. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, food and non-food inflation is intensifying. So what will happen then? If the prices of products imported by Azerbaijan increase, prices within the country will also rise.
To calculate base inflation, our country must, first of all, expand the list and volume of products it supplies itself. Local production must increase. And increase a lot in order to be able to roughly calculate inflation forecasts. But in our country, which is very dependent on external factors, forecasting inflation is an extremely difficult issue."
Nailə Qasımova,
Medianews.az