Baku and Yerevan are just one step away from signing a peace agreement. The calm that has prevailed at the border for two years, revolutionary changes in the economic and commercial sphere, and the continuation of the mutual confidence-building process at the level of civil societies all bring that day closer, not further away.
So, when will that "one step" be taken? That is also known: the article in the Armenian constitution regarding territorial claims against Azerbaijan must be removed. For Baku, it does not matter whether this will be in the form of adopting a new document or by removing the specific article from the "Fundamental Law."
From Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s statement last weekend, it became clear that the new text of the constitution will be published after the June 7 parliamentary elections. Although it was said that the document would be put up for public discussion in March of this year. Apparently, the authorities will start the next major process only after being sure that they have strengthened their legitimacy with victory in the elections...
Of course, in the new constitution, there cannot be any territorial claims against neighboring Turkey. It is true that Ankara does not insist on this as much as Baku does. The leadership of the brother country links the opening of borders with Armenia only to the signing of a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. This is the main condition.
This is logical. Because Armenia does not and has never had the courage to open a war against Turkey, and never will. Since there have been several wars with Azerbaijan, it is Baku’s right to demand the removal of the clause regarding territorial claims from the constitution of Yerevan. Another reason: we want a peace agreement not with the Pashinyan government, but with the Armenian people. Only after that will it be possible to sign the initialed document, open borders and communications, and establish diplomatic relations.
In any case, the election belongs to the Armenian people. It is noteworthy that in recent years, alongside the authorities, there is better understanding in society about the necessity to normalize relations with the two main neighbors. This mood is also strengthened by the fact that the Russian factor has not been able to guarantee prosperity and security in Armenia over 30 years...
ve-sulh-ani
According to political scientist Elkhan Shahinoglu, the likelihood of the peace agreement being signed in Turkey by the end of this year has increased, and Ankara is interested in this as well. Quote: "Armenian officials participate in various conferences in Turkey, and in bilateral meetings, they discuss ways to expand cooperation with their Turkish counterparts. Nikol Pashinyan also said in one of his recent statements that the conditions have arisen to start comprehensive cooperation between the two countries. The issue of opening the border between the two countries is also on the agenda. This matter is being coordinated between Ankara and Baku."
Last week, at the Inter-Parliamentary Union meeting held in Istanbul, the Speaker of the Turkish Parliament, Numan Kurtulmus, offered Armenia to join the Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan format during a meeting with the Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Alen Simonyan. “Simonyan did not hide his satisfaction with the proposal. Considering this progress, signing the peace agreement in Ankara or Istanbul would be beneficial for everyone,” the political scientist added...
Approximately two weeks later, on May 4, the first summit of the European Political Community will be held in Yerevan. The leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan are also invited to the event. Although there are currently quite a few arguments against Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Armenia (one is the lack of a signed peace agreement), Erdoğan may go to Yerevan.
This fully corresponds with Nikol Pashinyan's "real Armenia" and "zero problems with neighbors" narrative, who has already visited Turkey twice. At the same time, it could bring additional political points to him and his party before critical elections. In that case, the likelihood of signing the peace document in the brotherly country with Baku will increase somewhat more. Naturally, the Armenian community will have to neutralize the internal and external factors, especially the Russian factor, that hinder this. Provided that on June 7, they decisively say "CONTINUE ON THE PATH!" with Pashinyan...
Zahid SAFAROV