"Against the background of regional and global climate changes, the initial phase of the summer season, June, in the territory of Azerbaijan is characterized by dynamic meteorological processes. Synoptic forecasts confirm that in June of this year, the average monthly air temperature will be close to the climate norm and somewhat higher than the norm in some areas. In the first phase (relative stability) – in the first days of the month, the temperature will fluctuate within the climate norm (in Baku, daytime temperatures will be 26-31°C."
Medianews.az reports that these statements were made by weather and climate expert Javid Huseynov: "In the second phase (thermal maximum) – starting from the middle of the month, with the ingress of air masses of southern origin, the absolute maximum temperature will rise sharply. In Baku, some days will see 35-38°C, and in Central Aran and
Nakhchivan, temperatures of 36-40°C will be recorded.
Forecast models predict a sharp inequality in the distribution of precipitation. That is, the amount of monthly precipitation across the country is expected to be below or close to the climate norm. In mountainous and foothill regions (especially in Balakan-Sheki, Guba-Khachmaz, Karabakh, and Eastern Zangezur zones), there is a high probability of convective cloudiness, local short-term intense downpours, thunderstorms, and hail. Short-term flash floods are expected from mountain rivers."
The expert notes that the temperature being above the long-term climate norm in June and reaching limits of 38°C – 40°C on some days is directly related to large-scale atmospheric circulation.
"Dry tropical air masses entering the country from the southeast (Iran plateau) and southwest (North Africa-Arabia) cause a sudden increase in temperature. The formation of anticyclone fields at the subregional level in June leads to a minimum in cloudiness, intensification of insolation (solar radiation), and dynamic warming of the air through descending movements. The complex relief of our country creates sharp differences in the geographical distribution of June heat.
In the Central Aran and Nakhchivan (Thermal depression) regions, the continentality of the climate and the closed structure of the relief contribute to the accumulation of heat. As a result, during sharp heat waves, temperatures easily rise to 40°C."
J. Huseynov emphasizes that the temperature-regulating (thermal inertia) property of the Caspian Sea partially prevents severe heat in the Absheron Peninsula and coastal areas in the first half of June.
"However, in the second half of the month, the warming of the sea water and the predominance of southern/eastern winds create the 'burk effect' (the synergy of high temperature and high relative humidity), significantly increasing the effective temperature (perceived heat). The increase in the frequency and intensity of anomalously hot days in June directly correlates with global warming and the regional impacts of El Nino / La Nina events. Data from the last decade shows that the beginning of the summer season in Azerbaijan is becoming climatologically more aggressive (with earlier onset and longer-lasting heat waves)." (Konkret.az)