The current extreme heat in Europe is the result not only of natural air processes but also of human-caused climate change. Researchers from the international network "World Weather Attribution" have reached this conclusion.
The report analyzed the hottest days and nights from 1976 to 2026 in Western and Central European countries. It was found that today the average global temperature is about 1.4°C higher than the pre-industrial level. The exceedance was 0.8°C in 2003 and only 0.3°C in 1976.
According to Martin Olesen, a climatologist at the Danish Meteorological Institute who reviewed the study, the work was conducted at a high scientific level and confirms that the increase in average global temperature significantly raises the probability of extreme heat waves. He added that several decades ago such weather events were considered practically impossible, but today "the impossible has become possible."
According to the study, in 2003 — when Europe experienced the strongest heat wave since 1540 that claimed about 70,000 lives — the likelihood of such high night temperatures was 100 times lower and daytime temperatures 10 times lower compared to today. Moreover, if the current heat wave had occurred in 1976, the temperature would have been about 3.5°C lower, and about 2°C lower if it had occurred in 2003.
The researchers note that the extreme heat was caused by a persistent anticyclone over Europe, a flow of hot air from the Sahara, and global warming combined. At the same time, the authors of the report emphasize that the current heat is not related to the El Niño climate phenomenon.
According to scientific studies previously published in the journal "Nature Medicine," heat waves caused over 61,000 deaths in Europe in 2022 and over 47,000 deaths in 2023. Scientists warn that if the current trend continues, extreme temperature events will occur more frequently and pose increasing dangers to human health. /AZERTAC