Can the 40-day war between the US-Israel tandem and Iran be considered definitively over?
Referring to the statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, no, Israel will not make peace with Iran and will attack again if it feels the need.
From the composition of Iran’s renewed leadership, it appears that official Tehran will continue its anti-Israel stance, and even escalate it somewhat.
From the sometimes calculated, sometimes impulsive decisions of the US leadership, it seems that this country also will not establish a peace truce with Iran until it achieves its true goal.
In short, the process going on between the belligerents is called ceasefire talks in name and nature, aimed at reducing the tension that has climbed to a peak.
What is happening around the Strait of Hormuz in the Arab/Persian Gulf was negatively affecting the global economy; oil and gas prices were rising sharply, so the US called a time-out in the war.
Currently, Trump expects that a severely weakened and beaten Iran will come to reason as it nurses its wounds, and will gradually comply with Washington’s demands without making it too noticeable to its population.
Foremost among these demands is that Iran abandon its nuclear program, more precisely, its intention to acquire nuclear weapons, and hand over enriched uranium. There are other demands as well: that Iran does not pose a military threat to regional countries, does not interfere in other states' affairs, does not finance terrorism, etc.
The Iranian government, meanwhile, is holding a victory parade over the temporary ceasefire agreement and the time-out taken during the war, conducting extensive internal propaganda claiming victory in the war.
There is nothing new in this. After the 12-day missile war last June, propaganda in Iran was conducted similarly, and the renewed government is doing the same.
However, there is one detail. The Iranian leadership, while hoping that the war will not restart, is also preparing for its third wave, considering that another day like June 12 or February 28 might occur.
US President Donald Trump has stated that if Iran does not fulfill the obligations it has undertaken for the ceasefire to be permanent, Iran’s remaining strategic facilities – bridges and power plants – will be targeted.
Recent video footage shot in Iran shows that the country’s leadership is seriously preparing for this scenario. To this end, children and women are being mobilized to form living shields at the bridges and power stations in shifts, with the idea of “sacrificing for the ideas of the revolution.”
The idea is that the US and Israeli leadership, fearing responsibility for the mass deaths of civilians – children and women – and facing international condemnation, will avoid bombing strategic targets.
But is it possible to stop Israel with the blackmail of "causing the mass death of civilians"? No. Two months ago, Israeli officials themselves admitted that only 25 percent of the more than 40,000 killed in the bombing of Gaza were combatants. This means that 75 percent of those killed in Gaza were civilians.
True, the US administration may be somewhat hesitant at the prospect of “mass extermination of civilians,” but this cannot be relied upon either. On February 28, the initial target of US missiles was a girls’ school.
In other words, it is not a justifiable tactic for the Iranian leadership to rely on the mercy of the US and Israel and willingly expose their peaceful citizens to mass bombing.
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The experience of war history shows that when both (in this case, three) belligerents consider themselves victorious and make the double V (victory) sign with their fingers, the war is not considered over. Wars end when one side is decisively crushed, defeated, and surrenders; and the victorious side’s conditions are unconditionally and unquestionably fulfilled. Any other outcome means the war is frozen and will resume after some time.
It appears that Iran will not fulfill many of the conditions offered by the US and Israel for a permanent peace. Likewise, the demands Iran has made of them are not feasible to fulfill.
This means there will be another escalation in the region. Wars that end in stalemate are very rare. Although such a war occurred in Iran’s history – the Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988. Ignoring the one and a half million lives lost and billions of dollars of war expenditures, that war never truly ended.
Khalid KAZIMLI