The acceptance of the "peace plan" prepared by the US by Russia shows that this document is actually formed based on a bilateral agreement. If this "peace plan" is accepted by Ukraine, it is possible that Russia’s pressure on the South Caucasus will increase. It is precisely for this reason that Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in her recent statement emphasized that the tripartite agreements signed with Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020–2021 remain in force. This statement is a clear message that the Kremlin will continue to protect its interests in the region.
Russia ignores the tripartite agreements signed in Washington and highlights only its own mediation format. If the US and Russia reach a certain agreement regarding the Ukraine issue, as a result, Russia’s political pressures on Armenia may intensify. At the same time, the Kremlin may activate additional pressure mechanisms to return to tripartite agreements with Azerbaijan.
D. Trump’s "peace plan" is not only against Ukraine — this plan provides Russia with additional strategic advantages and facilitates the formation of its new zone of influence. After Ukraine, the next target for Russia could be the South Caucasus. Because the main part of the Middle Corridor passes exactly through this region, and control over transport-communication lines is a strategic priority for Moscow. Therefore, Russia will under no circumstances agree to weaken its positions.
The peace plan prepared by the US actually strengthens Russia’s position in the region again. If Washington makes certain concessions to Russia in Ukraine, such concessions may be repeated in the South Caucasus in the future.
Nevertheless, the Turkey factor should be taken into account. Both Azerbaijan and Armenia will not agree to such a geopolitical arrangement. Georgia, on the other hand, has for some time already been acting in accordance with Kremlin narratives, and this process further complicates the power balance in the South Caucasus.
Mahammad Asadullazade,
political expert
