Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's plans to neutralize his rivals ahead of the upcoming elections sometimes face resistance. The recent decision to release businessman and Pashinyan's main rival Samvel Karapetyan from prison to house arrest is also a logical result of these pressures.
According to Musavat.com citing Armenian media, the Anti-Corruption Court did not approve the investigator's motion and issued a decision to release the Armenian billionaire to house arrest.
From the released footage, it appears that supporters of S. Karapetyan are currently gathering in front of his house.
S. Karapetyan, who has been in custody since last summer, was released to house arrest some time ago but was returned to prison based on a motion from the prosecution.
Robert Kocharyan was also once caught between house arrest and prison; the decisions made regarding him were changed from time to time. Now, the Pashinyan government is pursuing a "one step forward, two steps back" policy regarding one of the main leaders of the Armenian church's donor base, a key figure of the "5th column," and one of the candidates favored by Russia in the elections. Why can't the authorities punish S. Karapetyan, who challenges Pashinyan and creates movements even while in prison? Under what conditions has Russia's man achieved freedom? Could this decision lead to a revenge of the church and Pashinyan's defeat in the elections?
Political analyst Elkhan Shahinoğlu told Musavat.com that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is forced to struggle with various forces to win the parliamentary elections to be held in June: "The Karabakh clan in radical opposition to Pashinyan is weak and has little chance of winning. Pashinyan's main rivals are the businessman Samvel Karapetyan, supported by the church and Russia.
The Armenian court's release of Samvel Karapetyan to house arrest was unexpected for Pashinyan. Because Pashinyan was interested in keeping his main rival detained until the end of the parliamentary elections. Nevertheless, there are serious charges against Karapetyan, and the court process will be long. This factor will divert Karapetyan and his supporters' attention from the elections to the court process. Likewise, the former President Robert Kocharyan was also released to house arrest but answered serious questions in court about the charges. This negatively affected Kocharyan's rating among Armenians. Currently, Robert Kocharyan is trying to create a unified opposition election bloc. He was in alliance with the Dashnaktsutyun Party while in power. Now he wants to restore this alliance. However, Dashnaktsutyun Party also does not have a great rating among Armenians. It is possible that Robert Kocharyan will try to form an alliance with Samvel Karapetyan as well."
The political analyst noted that Russia supports both Robert Kocharyan and Samvel Karapetyan: "This alliance would correspond to Russia's interests. However, an alliance with Kocharyan could negatively affect Samvel Karapetyan's rating. The party led by Samvel Karapetyan claims at least one-third of the electorate. The church is also very likely to support Samvel Karapetyan. This could somewhat increase Samvel Karapetyan's votes. In such a situation, Nikol Pashinyan will try by force to discredit the church leadership." According to E. Shahinoğlu, Pashinyan still cannot remove the Armenian Catholicos II Karekin from the church leadership: "Instead, Pashinyan is trying to divide the church and form a group of supporters among the priests."
