The deployment of a large number of the US's KC-135 and KC-46 refueling aircraft to the Middle East and Great Britain creates the impression that preparation for a new military operation against Iran is underway. However, such an overt preparation contradicts the policy of US President Donald Trump. Trump prefers to confuse his opponent. It is not excluded that by sending a large number of refueling aircraft to the Middle East and Great Britain, the Trump administration aims to create the appearance of preparing an operation against Iran while intending to catch Venezuela off guard.
Russia’s increased recent attention to the Venezuela issue also indicates that Moscow suspects Trump has decided to overthrow Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Last Sunday, the telephone conversation between Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, nicknamed the "grim horse," and Venezuela’s Foreign Minister Ivan Gil Pinto can also be interpreted as Moscow warning Caracas.
According to official information, during the phone call, Lavrov condemned the US strike on a Venezuelan ship in the Caribbean Sea. It is not plausible that such a phone call was needed just to condemn a US strike on a Venezuelan ship. It is very likely that Russia wanted to warn Venezuela at the level of the foreign minister.
The opposite can also be true. It is possible that the Trump administration tries to have the military operation preparation against Iran perceived by Tehran as a show. The worsening relations around Venezuela and the possible suspension of talks aimed at Maduro’s peaceful withdrawal from power may also serve to confuse Tehran.
Trump’s statement about having essentially decided to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine could serve two purposes. First, by announcing that he has made a decision to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine but wants to clarify some points, Trump tries to hold Russia in a spectator role regarding the expected operations against Iran and Venezuela. Nevertheless, it is also possible that the Trump administration intends to distract Russia by supplying "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine.
However, one thing is completely clear: the Trump administration understands the urgency of resolving the Iran and Venezuela issues in the near future. It can be said that time is working against the Trump administration. Therefore, it is highly probable that Trump will soon give the order to strike Iran and Venezuela. The sequence of these actions may become clear in the coming days, or possibly even within hours.
Xaqani Jafarli,
political analyst
