Russia's war against Ukraine has forced the Euro-Atlantic structures to revive. Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO not only led to the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance but also turned it into a more enormous military power.
China, which tries to challenge the Euro-Atlantic world order formed under the leadership of the USA, is also trying to establish its power center by taking advantage of the expanding scale of Russia's war against Ukraine. The formation of CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) does not allow the rapid development of a new eastern axis composed of Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang because the interests of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea rarely coincide.
Since Peter Van Praagh, founder and president of the Halifax International Security Forum, declared in 2023 that CRINK started to form as a new eastern axis, it has not made significant progress. It is true that during this period, Russia and Iran signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. However, the agreement signed on January 17, 2025, does not envisage the creation of a military alliance between Moscow and Tehran. Although Iran and North Korea's open military support and China's covert military-technical assistance to Russia in the war against Ukraine enable Moscow to continue the war, this support is insufficient for achieving victory over Kyiv. China and Iran do not want Russia to be defeated, but they are not very interested in its victory either. In fact, a weak, dependent Russia suits the interests of both China and Iran.
The same attitude exists towards Iran as well. China and Russia are interested in Iran's existence and integrity but not in its strength. During Israel's 12-day military intervention against Iran, Tehran did not receive serious support from Beijing, Moscow, or Pyongyang. China and Russia considered their roles fulfilled by issuing diplomatic statements condemning Israel.
One of Iran's influential political figures, Seyyed Mohammad Sadr, accused the Russians of passing information about Iran's defense centers to Israel during the 12-day war between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran and preceding confrontations. His statement also indicates that relations between Tehran and Moscow are not smooth. While Russia sold the S-400 air defense system to NATO member Turkey, it did not provide these systems to Iran, and negotiations between Moscow and Tehran about Su-35 fighter jets ended without results. This clearly shows that relations between two members of CRINK are not based on trust. CRINK is an empty alliance of four states that hate the world order led by the USA.
All of this shows that just as a falling leaf can change the flow of a stream, if one of the letters in the CRINK abbreviation falls off, the eastern axis that China tries to form against the USA will collapse before it takes shape. Although the phrase "A falling leaf can change the flow of a stream" is a metaphor emphasizing how a small, insignificant event can cause unexpected results, here I use it as a thesis that a small change can cause radical transformations in a dynamic system.
When thinking about which letter in the CRINK abbreviation may fall first, the first country that comes to mind is Iran. The weakest link in CRINK is Iran. It can be said with confidence that the disintegration of Iran or a regime change would mean the premature end of China and Russia's struggle to form a multipolar world order. Therefore, Iran will be Washington's main issue by the end of 2025, at the latest in 2026.
P.S. The footage from the wedding ceremony of the daughter of Ali Shamkhani, adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, held at the "Espinas Parsian" hotel in Tehran also shows that the foundations of the regime based on Sharia rules in Iran have been completely shaken and it is on the verge of collapse.
Xagani Jafarli,
political analyst
