According to US media, Trump is inclined to launch a military strike on Iran due to the killing of protesters.
The State Department has called on its citizens in Iran to immediately leave the country via Turkey or Armenia.
According to Trump's new decision, all countries trading with Iran will from now on pay a 25% customs duty on trade with the US.
If this decision is implemented, one of the countries that could suffer the most is Turkey because it has large-scale trade with both Iran and the US.
Currently, the tariff imposed by the US on goods imported from Turkey is 15%. The US is Turkey's second-largest export market. In 2024, exports to the US amounted to 16.4 billion dollars. (Figures for 2025 have not yet been announced).
Turkey imports important commodities such as oil, petrochemical products, and natural gas from Iran. In 2024, the trade volume between Turkey and Iran was 5.68 billion dollars.
As for Azerbaijan, in 2024 the volume of trade operations with Iran amounted to 647 million dollars. Although trade turnover with the US was 800 million dollars in the first 8 months of 2025, only 45 million of this was exports, so a 25% tariff will not seriously affect the situation.
Shahin Jafarli,
political analyst
