"Pax Silica" (Pax Silica) is a new international strategic initiative created under the leadership of the USA to protect the supply chain of semiconductors (chips) and critical minerals essential for artificial intelligence technologies. "Pax Silica" signifies an era of peace and economic stability achieved through technological advancement and chip production. The point is that although the initiative's name includes peace and stability, this project created by the USA actually lays the foundation for the "Technological Cold War."
There are several strategic goals in the creation of this project.
Supply chain security: To ensure uninterrupted supply of chips needed for artificial intelligence and the minerals used in their production (lithium, cobalt, etc.).
Reducing dependency: Especially minimizing strategic dependence on countries like China. It should be noted that China holds a 70 percent share in rare earth minerals on the global market.
When the USA announced the National Security Strategy a few days ago, European countries specifically expressed concerns that the USA did not view Russia as a threat. Germany even openly stated that unlike the USA, for them Russia is the number one threat. Strategically, in the US foreign policy, the "Technological Cold War" with China has now taken precedence over the "Russian threat."
Russia continues its traditional policy — land occupation. In one of his statements, Putin clearly said they were forced to enter Ukraine. If this compulsion truly happened, it means that the USA aimed to and succeeded in pushing Russia back from technology and the economy of the future. While Russia struggles in the Ukraine quagmire, the USA and its partners are making and implementing plans in artificial intelligence, chips, and quantum computing. It can be stated clearly that in the present and future world, the target is not "Land," but "Technology." The USA believes that whoever controls artificial intelligence technology in the world will be the leader of the next 100 years. Viewed from this perspective, the actual rival is China.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions and largely excluded from the global technological chain. However, China still plays the role of the world's factory.
"Pax Silica" unites the USA, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, and others into a unified bloc against China's "One Belt, One Road" project. We can also view this as an attempt to technologically "blockade" China. The USA sees Russia more as a "minor partner" or resource base for China. An interesting point is that despite the USA’s focus on technology, it does not abandon traditional markets (oil, gas). What is happening around Venezuela proves this.
While the "Pax Silica" initiative targets China, it also puts China's "One Belt, One Road" project under attack. The issue is that Azerbaijan has not only signed strategic partnership declarations with China but also with its strategic partners Russia and Pakistan. To strengthen this declaration with China, official Baku purchased HQ-9BE air defense systems from Beijing.
The "Technological Cold War" between the USA and China could also pose risks for Azerbaijan. For example, the risk of a technological "Wall" and sanctions. If Azerbaijan continues to prioritize Chinese technologies in its state infrastructure (for example, "Smart City" projects or 5G), it may face the risk in the future of being deprived of Western financial systems or high-tech components. The second risk could be threats in the military-technical field. However, this does not seem very risky as Azerbaijan's military-technical cooperation is diversified. Is there a risk? Yes. Another risk is being a participant in the "Corridors war." Azerbaijan's participation in China's "One Belt, One Road" via the Middle Corridor makes it a strategic partner for China. If the USA and its allies ("Pax Silica" bloc) decide to weaken China's trade routes, political and economic pressures may increase on the countries along this corridor. At the same time, Russia and Iran also have interests in these corridors, which turns Azerbaijan into a focal point where the interests of four major powers (USA, China, Russia, Iran) clash. Azerbaijan's insurance currently appears to be Europe's need for Azerbaijan's gas and green energy (Caspian Sea projects). This provides official Baku with "untouchability" or maneuvering space in negotiations with the West.
It must be openly stated that Azerbaijan, like all countries, will face choices. Now, not only economically but also in the "Technological Cold War," there is a compulsion to choose sides.
It should be noted that Western countries are building an artificial intelligence factory in Armenia. There are claims this project will expand further. If Armenia fully leans toward the West (USA/EU) and tries to become a regional pillar of "Pax Silica," and Azerbaijan deepens its "strategic marriage" with China and Russia, the peace process could become a victim of global polarization. Additionally, if the "One Belt, One Road" project serves China's economic hegemony, Washington may hesitate to give the "green light" to opening this corridor in the peace process. That is, the peace agreement may be delayed, conditions may worsen, and even the risk of renewed conflict may arise. Armenia presenting itself as the West’s (and "Pax Silica's") "democratic fortress" in the region might portray Azerbaijan's relationships with China and Russia (strategic partnership declarations) as a "threat." This could lead to Western support for Armenia in the peace process and pressure on Azerbaijan. If the South Caucasus becomes a front line between "Pax Silica" and the "Silk Road" (China), even if Azerbaijan and Armenia sign peace, this peace would be "cold" and tense.
By the way, the European Union's High Representative Kaja Kallas stated that Armenia demanded from the European Union "the same assistance given to Moldova to fight against malicious foreign influences." The likelihood of this assistance being granted is also very high.
I believe that the Azerbaijani leadership understands very well that the risk of war in the South Caucasus has not completely disappeared and this risk is no longer only about Armenia. If Armenia exits Russia’s "outpost" role and becomes the West’s "outpost" in the region while Azerbaijan stands on the China/Turkey axis, this could turn the conflict between the two countries back into a Global East-West confrontation.
Baku has perceived this risk and tries to sign a peace document with Armenia in a "bilateral format" (without intermediaries) so that major powers do not transform this process into a tool for their "cold war." Official Baku knows that if the Zangezur corridor is opened, it will not just be a railway. The optical cables and technological infrastructure passing through will become the very center of the Pax Silica and China competition. Baku tries to maintain this route as a "neutral zone" so both sides can use it and no party has an interest in targeting this infrastructure.
There is also a possibility of a scenario where Azerbaijan is "forced" to deploy troops to the Zangezur corridor, which could happen at the intersection of several factors. If political chaos erupts inside Armenia or the European Union mission at the border cannot prevent some tension or even stirs up the process itself, Baku may be prompted to act in the name of ensuring the corridor's security. This is the classic "geopolitical trap." Baku would achieve military success but become labeled an "aggressor" under international law and face severe sanctions.
With the emergence of "Pax Silica" and its targeting of China, the USA and its allies (the Pax Silica bloc) desire the opening of this corridor, but on one condition: neither Russia nor China should control the corridor. If Armenia wants to put this route under the control of Western companies or international protection services, Russia and Iran will prevent it. In such a deadlock situation, Azerbaijan's use of force to "untie the knot" could be presented as the only solution.
Iran has repeatedly declared that any change in Zangezur's status is a "red line" for it. If Azerbaijan undertakes military maneuvers, it would mean confrontation not just with Armenia but directly with Iran, which would escalate the conflict from a local to a regional war level.
The Karabakh issue was a domestic legal matter. The Zangezur issue is now a global transit and technology ("Pax Silica") dispute.
To avoid this "forcing" scenario, Azerbaijan might try to sidestep the process by activating its military alliance with Turkey (the Shusha Declaration). Turkey's NATO membership, the possibility of Turkey joining the "Pax Silica" project, and the difficulty of predicting steps it might take give reason to say that Azerbaijan has no real ally other than the Azerbaijani soldier.
Sakhavat Mammad
