The fundamental reasons that make the collapse of empires inevitable are mainly three. The intensification of internal social contradictions, technological and economic backwardness, and the ruling elite's inability to adapt to the challenges of the time were the main reasons for the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, as well as the primary cause of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
The date on which a collapsing empire falls depends on when the power crisis arises.
On March 15, 1917, Tsar Nicholas II abdicated the throne in favor of his younger brother Michael Romanov, but Grand Duke Michael did not accept the throne, creating a power crisis, and the Russian Empire disintegrated.
The coup initiated by high-ranking state officials against President Mikhail Gorbachev on August 19, 1991, caused a power crisis in the USSR and led to the empire's collapse.
The weakest of the three empires that the Russian people established in history is the current Russian Federation. The Russian Empire and the Soviet Union were stronger than the Russian Federation by all parameters. The fundamental factors that caused the collapse of both empires are more sharply observed in present-day Russia.
According to the Innovation Development Index presented by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Russia ranked 60th among 139 countries, lagging behind Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia, and Armenia. Russia's score is less than half of Switzerland's score (66), which leads the ranking table. Russia trailing even Vietnam shows how dire the situation is. Such a miserable state was not observed either during the era of the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union.
The intensification of internal social contradictions alongside the ruling elite’s inability to adapt to the challenges of the time is very clear. This means that Russia will collapse at the first power crisis. The unfinished "Prigozhin rebellion" demonstrated to everyone how incredibly fragile power is in Russia. It should also be noted that the current authoritarian regime in Russia is considered the weakest among absolute regimes. The monarchy existing in the Russian Empire and the totalitarian regime in the Soviet Union are considered much stronger in terms of resistance capacity and durability than the current authoritarian regime.
In the event of Russia's disintegration, China is expected to seize very large territories and resources, which compels the USA to save Russia. If Russia breaks apart, there is a threat that China will acquire territories rich in natural resources of at least 1.54 million, moderately 4-5 million, and radically 7 million square kilometers, gaining possession of huge internal water sources.
Today, China faces a severe water shortage. Existing water resources only meet one-third of the country's water demand. The development of information technologies, the application of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies sharply increase the demand for electrical energy. Water scarcity, however, prevents the increase in electricity production. A "water tax" is applied in 400 large cities in China, which exacerbates social contradictions. Therefore, water has become a matter of life and death for China. Beijing aims for Russia to fall into such a situation that it cannot stop the war against Ukraine, so China can seize more lands.
Washington knows very well that the USA faces tough competition with China at least until 2075 or the end of the century. China's acquisition of Russia's rich lands could intensify this competition or even turn it against the USA, so Washington is not interested in Russia's fragmentation. However, due to Putin's criminal folly, a situation has arisen where Russia will collapse despite all of the USA's efforts. Just as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 despite all attempts by the then US president George Bush, Russia will definitely collapse despite Donald Trump's efforts.
Xagani Jafarli,
political scientist
