As is known, on September 14, a person named Karen Avanesyan, born in 1967, was detained in the city of Xankendi. He went from his residence to a forest massif near the city, took a "Kalashnikov" automatic rifle and four boxes full of cartridges previously hidden there, as well as five grenades, and was detained when trying to approach the event held in Xankendi. At that time, K. Avanesyan showed armed resistance to the police by throwing three hand grenades and firing from the automatic rifle. K. Avanesyan, wounded by return fire, was detained. During the operation, one police officer was injured. The Prosecutor General's Office and the State Security Service (DSS) have jointly initiated a criminal case, and operational-investigative measures are underway.
Medianews.az conducted an interview with Ilham Ismayil, a well-known veteran of the First Karabakh War and lieutenant colonel, regarding this issue.
Ilham Ismayil, born in 1957, graduated from the Faculty of Journalism of Baku State University and the Minsk Higher Course of the USSR State Security Committee. He served as an operative officer and chief operative officer at the Ganja City Department of the State Security Committee (National Security Ministry). He was the head of the Shamakhi and Goychay divisions of the National Security Ministry, and also a department head of the ministry. Ilham Ismayil was one of the most active participants in the operations to liberate the Ganjabasar region from Armenian occupation in 1990-1991 and also fought in some parts of the border with Armenia. Since 1995, engaged in socio-political activities, Ilham Ismayil is recognized as an expert on security issues.
- Ilham bey, on the day the news about Karen Avanesyan was published, you proposed two versions in your statement to Moderator.az website. The main version you dwell upon is that Avanesyan is an agent of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) and was carrying out orders from that agency. You stated that Russian intelligence agencies have “sleeper agents” who wait patiently, and activate when given the signal. If Karen Avanesyan is an agent of the Russian special services, specifically the GRU, will it be possible to uncover and prove this?
- Among the possible versions, the most probable one is that Karen Avanesyan is an agent of the GRU or, more generally, Russian special service agencies. During the investigative-operational measures, Avanesyan’s possible connections and communication means will be studied, suspicious links will be cleared up. If it is confirmed that these connections involved him being controlled from outside, Avanesyan will have to confess. However, if Avanesyan takes full responsibility for this act himself, claims he prepared it voluntarily or out of revenge, and there are no additional evidences, it might not be proven that he was an agent of a foreign state. Naturally, no foreign special service agency will admit to this either.
- When does the GRU usually decide to activate “sleeper agents”? If Karen Avanesyan is one of the GRU's sleeper agents, what could the decision to use him indicate? Could this also be interpreted as a sign of the GRU’s helplessness or, so to speak, “grasping at straws”? Can it be considered that the GRU has lost other means or levers of influence and therefore was forced to “wake up” Karens…
- “Sleeper agents” sometimes wait for years. In the current situation, there are several factors which suggest that an assignment was given for the agent to begin activities. Among these factors are the tension in Azerbaijan-Russia relations, Azerbaijan and Armenia initialling the text of a peace agreement in Washington without Russian participation, Russia’s intention to prevent the final stages of this process – the signing of the agreement, attempts to keep pressure on Azerbaijan and Armenia, the need to create a new “hero myth” around an event caused by a figure like Avanesyan to help the Karabakh separatists regain strength in Armenia, and the intention to convince the international community that the Karabakh problem has not been solved.
It is also possible that Avanesyan demanded to leave Azerbaijan from his curators. The GRU or another special service agency perhaps agreed to this provided he carries out any provocation before leaving Karabakh. The fact that on that day the President of Azerbaijan was visiting Karabakh is also an important point here. Yes, the GRU’s influence inside Azerbaijan has considerably shrunk compared to previous years, so it is not excluded that it tries to create a provocation using any available options.
- Is it very difficult to expose “sleeper agents” before they “awaken”?
- “Sleeper agents” remain inactive for some period, i.e. they do not receive orders. For this reason, it is difficult to expose them in advance. However, during the course of complex operational measures, certain signs might still make it possible to trace a “sleeper agent.”
- Do you expect Karen Avanesyan to become a “hero” or “anti-hero” in Armenia? Or will this incident just pass as an ordinary piece of criminal news there?
- Official Yerevan does not approve of Avanesyan’s actions because it is trying to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. The forces in Armenia opposing Nikol Pashinyan’s government are trying to present Avanesyan’s behavior as if he became a target of insults by Armenians still in Karabakh and took revenge because he could not endure it. Also, building a “hero” or “martyr” out of him would not change anything. This indeed might remain just an ordinary piece of criminal news in Armenia for some time. In any case, I do not believe this issue will be dwelled upon for long.
Naila Gasimova,
Medianews.az
