The Ministry of Finance has announced the preliminary indicators of the state budget for 2026. The revenues of the state budget for the next year are projected at 38.4 billion manats, while expenditures are forecasted at 41.5 billion manats.
In a statement to Medianews.az regarding the matter, economist and deputy Vugar Bayramov said that compared to this year's budget forecasts, our fiscal revenues will increase by 0.2%, and our expenditures by 0.3%: "In 2026, the state budget deficit will be 3.1 billion manats. The budget deficit will increase more relative to revenues and expenditures: by 2.4%."
The state budget assumes the price of 1 barrel of crude oil at 65 dollars. Considering the volatility in the global oil market, assuming the price of 1 barrel of crude oil at 65 dollars for the next year cannot be considered a conservative approach compared to previous years. Most international organizations' forecasts for the price of 1 barrel of crude oil range between 50-60 dollars."
According to V. Bayramov, one of the most positive aspects regarding the revenues of next year’s state budget is the forecast that non-resource revenues will account for 57.4% of total revenues: "This is a record level regarding the share of the non-oil and gas sector in our fiscal revenues after oil revenues have entered the country. This indicator was projected at 52.3% for this year. This means that next year the fiscal diversification policy will deepen further and the share of the oil sector in overall revenues will decrease. This is commendable in terms of minimizing dependence on oil."
Next year, 8.7 billion manats will be allocated for defense and national security. Economic activity will receive 7.6 billion manats. For social protection and social security, 4.8 billion manats are envisaged. The special share of expenditure for social protection and social security in the budget is forecasted at 11.7%. Compared to 2025, social protection and social security expenditures next year will increase by 121 million manats, or by 2.54%. It should be noted that these expenditures are direct social security expenses. Overall, social expenditures are expected to constitute more than 40% of total budget expenditures next year."
Regarding what increases will occur next year, V. Bayramov said that according to current legislation, from January 2026, all types of labor pensions will be indexed and increased: "This will cover 1,100,000 of our citizens. These expenses will be taken into account in the budget. Other directions will become clear after detailed budget indicator data are presented."
Naila Qasımova,
Medianews.az
